Origin II: The Preview, NSW v QLD

Origin II: The Preview, NSW v QLD

[RUGBY LEAGUE] Origin II: The Preview, NSW v QLD

The equation is simple in tonight's second State of Origin clash for 2007.

NSW must win to keep the series alive and QLD need only a draw to secure a second straight series victory (on the basis that they are the holders from 2006).

Can NSW muster enough points to give their forwards a chance to demonstrate why they've been regarded as a superior unit than their QLD counterparts - ala Game I when NSW used up its point scoring quota in the first half. Up 18-6 at halftime in Game I really should have been a lead big enough to protect but the Blues lost the plot after the break and young Jarrod Mullen could not impose himself on the game to right the ship. NSW are pinning their hopes on a more dominating player in Brett Kimmorley and the formula makes sense if the forwards can stand up and be counted when (or if) Kimmorley can get them a decent lead.

NSW will look to keep the ball moving to both sides of the ruck quickly during each set - and Kimmorley is going to touch the ball at least 3 or 4 times a set so his passing game will be both relied upon heavily and under pressure throughout the night. NSW looked to play Willie Mason and Nathan Hindmarsh on the edges in Game I but they didn't see the ball so that plan will be scrapped despite Kimmorley's presence, mainly because young backrowers Greg Bird and Ryan Hoffman (who I predict will to start for Andrew Ryan or Brett White) excel on the edges and both Mason and Hindmarsh will revel in the confrontation that occurs in the middle of the field. The late addition of Brett Stewart for Anthony Minichiello should boost the team's tryscoring potency but the Blues will miss Minichiello's energy on kick returns.

QLD will stick to their Game I formula of getting a strong go-forward from Steven Price and Petero Civoniceva and kicking judiciously off the back of it and work for a mistake that gives them field position. Then once in an attacking zone they will spread the ball right across their backline and give their skill players the chance to make something happen. NSW really struggled with the speed at which QLD moved the ball in the NSW defensive 20m zone in Game I and you can bet your bottom dollar the Cane Toads will try and replicate that style in Game II. And on kick-returns QLD really have some danger about their back three so look for them to really try and split the line rather than simply get to the line on the bring back.

The Teams:

NSW COCKROACHES
STEWART, Brett *
KING, Matt
LYON, Jamie
COOPER, Matt
HAYNE, Jarryd
ANASTA, Braith
KIMMORLEY, Braith
WHITE, Brett
BUDERUS, Danny (c)
KITE, Brent
MASON, Willie
HINDMARSH, Nathan
RYAN, Andrew
Bench:
BAILEY, Luke
SIMPSON, Steve
HOFFMAN, Ryan
BIRD, Greg
Coach:
MURRAY, Graham

QUEENSLAND CANE TOADS

HUNT, Karmichael

TATE, Brent

BELL, Steven

HODGES, Justin

INGLIS, Greg

LOCKYER, Darren (c)

THURSTON, Johnathan

PRICE, Steven

SMITH, Cameron

CIVONICEVA, Petero

WEBB, Carl

CARROLL, Tonie

JOHNSON, Dallas

Bench:

BERRIGAN, Shaun

LILLYMAN, Jacob

MYLES, Nate

COSTIGAN, Neville

Coach:

MENINGA, Mal

PREDICTION: NSW by 1... without much confidence. You could argue the Telstra Stadium hoodoo is due to end sooner rather than later but the fact remains that going into this evening's clash - Queensland still haven't won anything there.

1ST TRYSCORER: Matt King, NSW

MAN OF THE MATCH: Willie Mason, NSW